Data Interpretation

The projected magnitude and direction of internal climate mobility will vary across space and time, and across future scenarios. However, for some areas (gridcells) the results of multiple scenarios agree on the direction of population change (increase vs. decrease or arrivals vs. departures). Those areas where the results of the Africa Climate Mobility Model are consistent across three or more future scenarios are represented here as so called “hotspots” of internal (within country) climate mobility. Hotspots are geographic areas that, regardless of the emissions and social development scenario, will likely become climate mobility origins or destinations in the future.

Data Modelling

The Africa Climate Mobility Model is based on a gravity model of Africa’s future spatial population. The model estimates the number of people arriving or leaving rural and urban areas, and their future locations. It compares the population distributions that incorporate likely and optimistic projected climate impacts as well as future socio-economic scenarios based on future development trajectories for Africa.

The model uses two climate scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0) to inform the model’s climate impacts on water, agricultural, and ecosystem sector change, as well as flood risk provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which are incorporated in projections of future population distributions. The model accounts for population change projections and considers multiple climate stressors as inputs, including climate impacts on water (floods), food security (water availability and crop production), coasts (sea level rise), safety (armed conflicts, refugee camps), and economies (poverty).

For more information on the Africa Climate Mobility Model read Appendix 2 in the GCCM Report: Africa Shifts.

Source

ACMI Africa Climate Mobility Model, 2022