More severe climate disruptions, combined with Africa’s growing population, are forecast to propel increased mobility in the coming decades.

By mid-century, the number of people in Africa moving within their countries in response to climate impacts could reach up to 113 million, under a high-emissions and inequitable development scenario (Rocky Road). A high-emissions and inclusive development scenario (High Road) could see up to 95 million people forced to move by 2050.

One major driver of higher projected climate mobility under the Rocky Road scenario is population growth. In a low development future, Africa is forecast to have a population of 2.3 billion people by 2050, compared to 1.8 billion under the inclusive development scenario.

Across all studied scenarios, climate mobility is projected to account for up to 5 percent of Africa’s population by 2050, a significant increase from its share of around 1.5 percent today. The overwhelming majority of this movement will happen within countries rather than across borders.

The ACMI modelling of future climate mobility scenarios suggests that alternative development pathways will produce very different outcomes in terms of future movement:

A ‘Rocky Road’ scenario assumes a future where global emissions remain high, and the planet heats by at least 2°C by mid-century, while Africa sees low levels of cooperation, high population growth, low urbanisation, limited economic expansion, and low levels of education. For this inequitable development future, the model produces high levels of projected climate mobility. By 2050, as many as 113 million people could be moving within their countries as a result of climate impacts under this scenario.

A ‘High Road’ scenario presumes that the impact of high emissions and global heating is buffered by more inclusive development, lower population growth, high urbanisation, medium GDP, and higher levels of education. This scenario sees climate-forced mobility possibly reduced to 47 million people by 2050.

These results highlight the urgency of focusing development efforts on human well-being that goes beyond economic growth. Ambitious development choices could reduce vulnerability, in spite of mounting climate challenges. An inclusive development pathway will see benefits that go beyond slowing climate-forced migration and displacement. It will protect many millions of Africans from being pushed into extreme poverty.

Some regions will see more movement than others. By mid-century, up to 10 percent of the population across the Horn of Africa sub-region could be compelled to move in response to climate stressors.  This means, under the Rocky Road scenario, by 2050, up to 49 million people could be on the move in Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda as a result of climate change.

Few of the population shifts in Africa between now and 2050 will involve people moving across national borders. Cross-border climate mobility is forecast to reach up to 1.2 million people by 2050. This will be a small fraction of the continent’s overall population, but a noticeable share of total projected cross-border migration in Africa by 2050, which could reach up to 12.5 million people. Zimbabwe, Malawi, Uganda, and Zambia could see the largest increases in emigration due to climate impacts. South Africa, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Botswana, and Kenya are forecast to see the largest increases in people immigrating to those countries in response to climate impacts.