Across the continent – from the coastal communities of Alexandria to the bustling settlements of Lagos, and from rural villagers in Karamoja to the new arrivals in growing towns in Angola and Malawi – people feel a strong sense of belonging to their local community. They experience the growing severity of climate change, yet their livelihoods – such as fishing or herding – depend on the land and the sustainability of their local ecosystems. People remain in areas afflicted by frequent flooding or prolonged droughts, even if it feels as though their land has become ‘cursed’. Within a year of Cyclone Idai devastating the city of Beira in March 2019, displaced people who had resettled further inland returned to their old neighbourhoods, fishing and trading in the local market.

For most Africans interviewed by the ACMI, coping with climate change means finding solutions to resume their way of living after climate disruption. They may take on longer working hours, explore diversifying ways of earning income, or even cut down on meals. In other words, their first or preferred response to climate stressors is to remain home.

Usually, climate factors add to other reasons that make people want to move, such as their economic situation, hopes for a better education, the reassurance of relatives who have already moved, or concerns about their safety. Climate impacts emerge as a decisive factor in people’s mobility, when sudden events, such as a massive storm, force them to evacuate to avoid being hit. They also feature more prominently among people’s motivations for moving in areas that have been exposed repeatedly to climate hazards, such as alternating droughts and floods.

Climate impacts could make moving harder and leave impoverished and otherwise vulnerable people stranded. People may aspire to move, but many lack the resources and connections to follow through. Factors that enable people to embrace mobility include having an education, assets, or transferable skills that are not tied to a specific resource or occupation. It also helps if people have ties to someone who has already moved. Those who lack these advantages may be forced to temper their aspirations. For many, moving seems simply too risky, whether due to a perceived lack of physical security or of opportunities to access land, jobs, and services in potential destinations.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) finds that across low-income countries, high temperatures slow migration rates. As climate impacts make living conditions more difficult and erode people’s assets, the most vulnerable groups and individuals – particularly those with low income and education, rural households, older people, people with disabilities and women – could become stranded.