Climate related increases in river flooding will be an important driver of climate mobility across Africa. Floods accounted for 80% of all disasters in Africa from 2000 to 2020.

Model considers the likelihood of human mobility into areas that are projected to experience increasing flood risks. The flood impact model is at 500m resolution, and is based on projected flood depth. Measured in terms of the reduction in population potential for every 5km2. Projections of future population distributions based on flood risk are provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP).

GHG emissions remain high, and the planet heats by at least 2°C by mid-century.

Flood Risk

Areas that will be affected by significant flooding by 2050

Floods

This climate mobility platform presents data and analysis on current realities and future projections in Africa. 

Africa Climate Mobility Initiative

%s | Africa Climate Mobility Initiative

Climate Justice

African
Shifts

Deep Roots

A Mobile Future

Lay of 
the Land

Land & Water

Cross-border Ties

Urban Engines

Big
changes

Pastoral Ways

The Young Lead the Way

Women at Risk

On the 
forefront

Harnessing Hope

Working Together

Stepping into 
tomorrow

Site Navigation

Story overview

Voices from the
frontlines

This visual introduction to contemporary African life examines the effects of the climate crisis on people’s lives and how it influences their decisions to move.

THE GALLERY

The Africa Climate Mobility Initiative recommends eight key actions which, if undertaken as a whole over the next eight years (2023-2030) can harness climate mobility to support adaptation journeys that are both people positive and nature positive, contributing to Africa’s collective resilience.

AGENDA FOR ACTION

Watch our documentary and explore how climate mobility affects frontline communities.

Stories from Africa

In the Climate Mobility Data Portal we share the main data sets used in the Africa Climate Mobility Model. This tool allows you to understand and grasp the importance of the critical factors affecting climate mobility in Africa.

EXPLORE THE DATA

Understanding coastal risks will help the 122 thousand people projected to move out of Dar es Salaam by 2050 plan and adapt to climate change.

Expected number of people leaving their home due to climate change by 2050 under the Rocky Road scenario (30 - 15k people)

People leaving

A significant part of the population in the Nile delta will be exposed to sea level rise risk, including part of the 5.3 million people projected to live in Alexandria and surroundings by 2050.

Projected population by 2050 under the Rocky Road scenario (5k – 500k inhabitants)

Population

Sea level rise

Around 750 thousand people may need to leave Ethiopia’s Adama Valley by 2050 as a result of climate risks like droughts.

Expected number of people leaving their home due to climate change by 2050 (5k – 150k people)

Drought risk by 2050

While currently affected by severe droughts, river floods upstream from Humbe (Angola) are expected to drive 153 thousand people to move away by 2050.

Expected number of people leaving their home due to climate change by 2050 (1k – 2M people)

Flood risk

Borderlands around the Rift Valley are projected to become major climate mobility hotspots. Rwanda’s border area with Uganda could see up to 1.1 million new arrivals by 2050. 

Expected number of people moving to this areas due to climate change by 2050 under the Rocky Road scenario (1k – 700k people)

People arriving

Lusaka is projected to become a climate mobility destination for up to 82 thousand people evading flood risk in the surrounding areas by 2050.

Expected number of people moving to these areas due to climate change by 2050 (50 – 30k people)

Droughts could force traditionally mobile communities – including 300 thousand pastoralists in Senegal – to seek stability and settle beyond their usual grazing lands.

Expected number of people leaving their home due to climate change by 2050 (50 – 40k people)

Pasturelands

Preparing youth for future climate challenges will make the population in Kano (Nigeria’s North West), expected to grow in 10.3 million people by 2050, more resilient.

Projected population growth by 2050 (compared to 2010) under the Rocky Road scenario (35k – 900k people)

Population growth

Ensuring that women are not left behind after 54 thousand people may leave Ouahigouya (Burkina Faso) and other climate mobility hotspots that today host refugee camps will be a priority to reduce their vulnerability.

Expected number of people leaving their home due to climate change by 2050 (50 – 10k people)

Internally displaced people and refugee camps (UNHCR)

Refugee camps

At risk of cyclons and floods, climate adaptation will be crucial for the 483 thousand people who will continue to call Beira home by 2050.

Projected population by 2050 under the Rocky Road scenario (500 – 275k inhabitants)

Stronger rural-urban connections could help Johannesburg – projected to see 1.3 million people move into the city and its surrounding areas by 2050 – adapt to climate change.

Expected number of people moving to these areas due to climate change by 2050 under the Rocky Road scenario (5k – 60k people)

Climate change is reshaping our world and exposing Africans, across the continent, to increased hardship. How can its people be empowered to face climate shocks and stressors and make informed decisions to move or stay now and in the future?

Voices from thefrontlines

Floods

Data Interpretation

Data Modelling

Source