Data Interpretation

In a low development future (Rocky Road scenario), Africa is forecast to have a largely rural population of 2.3 billion people by 2050, compared with 1.8 billion people under the high development scenario (High Road) that assumes a faster rate of urbanisation. Changes in the distribution and density of population over space and time affect a) exposure (proximity to climate shocks and stressors) and b) vulnerability (sensitivity and adaptive capacity of populations) to climate risk. Changes in population and climate risk exposure and vulnerability are important as they affect and are affected by rates of climate mobility across the continent.

Data Modelling

This dataset uses a modelled population surface, Global Human Settlement Layer - Population (GHS-POP), that is available in time series for 1990, 2000, and 2015 (JRC & CIESIN 2021). GHS-POP consists of census data that are spatially-allocated within census units based on the percent built-up areas, a layer constructed from Landsat and later Sentinel satellite imagery. The ACMI climate mobility model used these inputs to project forward population change over time (5 year increments) and space (per 15km grid cell) for Africa till 2050.

Source

GHS-POP and GHS-SMOD