Water Risks

Sea Level Rise

Coastal areas affected by sea level rise

Data Interpretation

Sea level rise impacts are generally limited to relatively small areas, but those small areas are home to some of the largest cities in Africa and include dense clusters of population, heritage and infrastructure, including Lagos, Alexandria, Mombassa, and Dar es Salaam. At the continental level, up until 2030, coastal areas will  be climate mobility destination areas, as inland climate impacts drive people to move into the coastal zone. However, as continued sea level rise and increasing riparian flooding begin to affect coastal areas, they are predicted to become sources of climate mobility by 2050.

Data Modelling

Seal Level Rise indicated here uses NASA’s Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) in a simplified ‘bathtub’ function. It assumed that sea level rise and storm surge under low emissions (RCP2.6) will amount to a 1m inundation in the Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) by 2050, and that under RCP6.0 it will amount to a 2m inundation. The habitability of coastal areas not immediately within the LECZ may also be negatively impacted through increased coastal flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion into estuaries and deltas, as well as increases to the water table


STRM (Data range: 2020-2050)

Global Centre for Climate MobilityAfrica Climate Mobility Initiative